Probability Pattern

Some machines succeed on each craft only with a set chance, such as 80 percent, so a fixed pattern cannot promise an exact output. Probability Pattern adds encoded patterns built for these machines. Each pattern sets a target amount, a per-attempt success probability and an acceptable risk of producing fewer items than the target. From these inputs the mod works out how many attempts are needed so that the target is reached with the chosen confidence.

The calculation rests on a binomial model of the machine's output. For targets up to 30 items the mod uses the exact binomial lower-tail probability. For larger targets it switches to a normal approximation, which is faster and accurate enough at that size. As an example, a target of 1000 items at an 80 percent success rate with a 5 percent risk limit needs 1286 attempts, and the chance of producing fewer than 1000 items is then 5 percent or less.

Probability Pattern runs on client and server, so both sides need it. It is published for Forge and NeoForge across 8 release versions, 1.7.10 – 1.21.1, and is released under the GNU Lesser General Public License v3.0 only, with its source code public.